Research

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

While there are still several months until the election is decided, the expectation is that regardless of who ultimately becomes our 47th president, the biggest loser could be the fiscal deficit. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government is expected to run sizable deficits over the next decade — to the tune of 5% – 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) each year. According to the CBO, the deficit increases significantly in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5% of GDP in 2054.

Second quarter numbers were quite good and generally in line with LPL Research’s expectations. In our earnings preview on July 1, we called for double-digit earnings growth and we got it — S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) grew nearly 12% in the quarter, or over 13% excluding a $9.1 billion write-down of media assets by Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). Profit margins expanded quarter over quarter by a not insignificant 0.4%, indicating companies did a good job controlling costs.

In December 2023, Vladimir Putin declared that the 2024 BRICS Summit, hosted by Russia, would be focused on establishing a “fair world order” based on shared principles.

A soft landing looks achievable, barring any shocks. Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations, so an independent and credible central bank is key. One of the best concepts in the speech for investors to understand is the current data shows an evolving macro landscape. The jury is still out on if the Fed can successfully manage the risks to both sides of their dual mandate.

Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street.

Like a stubbed toe, pullbacks in the market are inevitable, something investors tend to forget during periods of low volatility.

After the sharp August 5 decline, equities are nearing an attractive entry point. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) maintains its tactical neutral stance on equities, while actively monitoring signs of bottoming. LPL Research continues to preach patience before buying this dip. Bottoming is a process.

Investors had a healthy appetite for risk so far this year as a so-called potential soft landing has been factored in. We have an economy with rising wages, decelerating inflation, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) on the cusp of cutting rates.

The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets.